百亚股份（003006）：Q3业绩短期承压，线下渠道增长动能充沛

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The company's Q3 performance is under short-term pressure, but offline channel growth momentum remains strong. The company reported a revenue of 2.623 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 245 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5% [7][10] - The company is accelerating its nationwide offline expansion, and e-commerce is expected to recover, supported by an aggressive management team, which bodes well for the company's medium to long-term growth potential [7][10] - E-commerce revenue faced pressure in Q3, but internal operational strategy adjustments are expected to lead to recovery. E-commerce channel revenue for the first three quarters was 933 million yuan, down 10.2% year-on-year, with Q3 e-commerce revenue at 341 million yuan, down 11.4% year-on-year [7][10] - Offline channel revenue for the first three quarters reached 1.624 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.7%, with Q3 offline revenue at 491 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.2% [7][10] - The company is focusing on optimizing its product structure around health series products, with significant growth in its probiotic and organic cotton product lines [10] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is projected to be 3.702 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 13.8%. Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 339 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 17.9% [6][8] - The company's gross margin for Q3 was 55.55%, a slight year-on-year decline, while the net profit margin was 6.58%, also down year-on-year [10] - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 339 million, 439 million, and 565 million yuan, respectively, reflecting a strong medium to long-term growth outlook despite short-term challenges [10]