百亚股份（003006）：线上修复可期，外围市场增长动力充沛

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3][4] Core Views - The company is expected to see strong revenue growth driven by offline market expansion and a recovery in online sales, with a projected revenue of 3,711 million yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 14% [3][4] - The company has adjusted its e-commerce strategy, which is anticipated to lead to a gradual recovery in profitability, while offline growth momentum remains robust [4][6] Financial Summary - Total shares outstanding: 429.65 million [1] - Market price: 22.60 yuan [1] - Market capitalization: 9,710.04 million yuan [1] - Revenue forecast for 2023A: 2,144 million yuan, with a growth rate of 33% [3] - Net profit forecast for 2023A: 238 million yuan, with a growth rate of 27% [3] - EPS forecast for 2023A: 0.55 yuan [3] - Projected revenue for 2025E: 3,711 million yuan, with a growth rate of 14% [3][4] - Projected net profit for 2025E: 321 million yuan, with a growth rate of 12% [3][4] - Projected EPS for 2025E: 0.75 yuan [3][4] Revenue Breakdown - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2,620 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.8% [4] - Offline revenue for the first three quarters was 1,620 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 35.7% [4] - E-commerce revenue for the first three quarters was 930 million yuan, down 10.2% year-on-year, but the decline is narrowing [4] Profitability Metrics - Gross margin for the first three quarters was 54%, a decrease of 0.88 percentage points [4] - Net profit margin for the first three quarters was 9.32%, a decrease of 0.93 percentage points [4] - The company expects to maintain a net profit margin of around 9.4% in 2026E and 9.7% in 2027E [6] Valuation Ratios - Projected P/E ratio for 2025E: 30.2 [3] - Projected P/B ratio for 2025E: 5.9 [3] - Projected ROE for 2025E: 20% [3]