Guotai Haitong Securities(SH:601211) Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-10-22 13:24Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The exhaustion of mandatory circulation allowances may support a reversal in carbon prices, with a possible reversal in Q3 due to expected trading. By the end of October, as compliance pressure mounts and the release of mandatory circulation allowances nears its end, upward momentum may accumulate, and carbon prices may enter a stage of trend - based recovery [7] - It is recommended that deficit enterprises make phased purchases at low prices before the end of October [5] Group 3: Summary by Sections Market Quotes - The main CEA target rebounded above 40 yuan. There were 44.2 tons in listed trading and 63.1 tons in bulk trading. The total single - day trading volume was less than 1.1 million tons. For CCER, the listed agreement trading volume was 1.30 tons, with an average trading price of 57.60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.40% [4] - The closing prices of CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 were 60.31 yuan/ton, 59.00 yuan/ton, 60.00 yuan/ton, 42.18 yuan/ton, and 41.48 yuan/ton respectively. The price increases were 0.00%, 0.00%, 0.00%, 8.46%, and 7.80% respectively [9] - The trading volume of CCER was 1.30 tons, with an average trading price of 57.60 yuan/ton (down 6.40%), and the trading amount was 74.99 million yuan [11] Strategy - Deficit enterprises are advised to make phased purchases at low prices before the end of October [5] Core Logic - The exhaustion of mandatory circulation allowances may be a realistic support for the reversal of carbon prices. Expected trading may lead to a possible carbon price reversal in Q3. By the end of October, as compliance pressure emerges and the release of mandatory circulation allowances nears completion, carbon prices may trend upwards [7]