CATL(SZ:300750) GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2025-10-22 13:39Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 501.59 CNY [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights strong demand for lithium batteries since Q3, with the company's production capacity utilization reaching saturation. It is expected that demand for dynamic storage will remain positive through 2026, and with capacity expansion, the current shortage may ease. Consequently, the earnings forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised upward [2][12]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 400,917 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 22.0%. However, a decline of 9.7% is expected in 2024, followed by a recovery with growth rates of 11.4%, 22.8%, and 20.6% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 44,121 million CNY in 2023, with a significant increase of 43.6%. The net profit is expected to grow to 68,005 million CNY in 2025, 88,026 million CNY in 2026, and 109,297 million CNY in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 34.0%, 29.4%, and 24.2% respectively [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 9.67 CNY in 2023, increasing to 14.90 CNY in 2025, 19.29 CNY in 2026, and 23.95 CNY in 2027 [4]. Market Performance - The company's stock has a 52-week price range of 211.39 CNY to 409.89 CNY, with a total market capitalization of 1,715,177 million CNY [7]. - The stock has shown an absolute increase of 2% over the last month, 35% over the last three months, and 53% over the last year [11]. Production and Capacity - The company is experiencing tight production capacity, with utilization rates at 89.86% in the first half of 2025. The third quarter is expected to remain saturated, but new capacity is being developed, which is anticipated to positively impact market share in 2026 [12]. - The report mentions that the company plans to release 100 GWh of 587Ah large battery cell capacity in Shandong by 2026, with an overseas factory in Hungary expected to commence production by the end of 2025 [12]. Industry Outlook - The report indicates a robust outlook for the energy storage market, driven by the introduction of supportive policies and the growing demand for energy storage solutions globally. The company is accelerating the mass production of its 587Ah energy storage cells, which are expected to meet high safety and longevity standards [12].