温氏股份（300498）：畜禽成本具领先优势，Q3肉鸡业务盈利5亿

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.26 billion yuan for the first nine months of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 18.3% [5] - The company aims to maintain a stable development strategy, with a target to reduce the debt ratio to around 45% [5] - The company has a leading cost advantage in livestock and poultry, with Q3 profits from the meat chicken business estimated at 500 million yuan [6][8] Financial Performance Summary - For the first nine months of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 75.788 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.03% year-on-year [5] - The company's asset-liability ratio decreased to 49.4% by the end of September 2025, down 1.2 percentage points from June [5] - The company’s pig output for the first nine months was 27.668 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 28.3% [7] - The company’s profit from pig farming for the first half of 2025 was approximately 5.1 billion yuan [6] Business Segment Performance - The company’s meat chicken output for the first nine months was 948 million birds, a year-on-year increase of 8.9% [8] - The average selling price of fattening pigs in Q3 was 13.18 yuan/kg, with comprehensive breeding costs dropping to 12.2-12.4 yuan/kg [6] - The company’s profit from the chicken business in Q3 is estimated at 500 million yuan, despite a total loss of 700 million yuan for the first nine months [9] Future Outlook - The company expects to achieve its annual target for pig output of 33-35 million heads, having completed 71.4%-75.7% of this target by September [7] - Forecasts for 2025-2027 indicate a gradual increase in both pig and chicken output, with net profits projected to recover significantly in 2026 and 2027 [10][11]