承德露露（000848）：追进度Q3收入好于预期，推新仍在途中

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][2] Core Views - The company reported better-than-expected revenue in Q3, with a total revenue of 5.72 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.91% [7][2] - The overall revenue for the first nine months of 2025 was 19.55 billion yuan, a decline of 9.42% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.83 billion yuan, down 8.47% year-on-year [7][2] - The company is optimistic about returning to a strong year in 2026, benefiting from the timing of the Spring Festival [2] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue projections for 2025 and 2026 are 29.86 billion yuan and 32.58 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 6.28 billion yuan and 6.93 billion yuan [2] - The current market capitalization corresponds to a P/E ratio of 14.8x for 2025 and 13.4x for 2026 [2] - The company maintains a strong cash flow position, with cash on hand of 3.505 billion yuan at the end of Q3 [7][2] Revenue and Profitability - The company experienced a gross margin of 44.73% in Q3, an increase of 4.05 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to cost advantages from low-priced raw materials [7][2] - Sales expenses increased by 61.74% year-on-year in Q3, mainly due to advertising and channel costs for new product launches [7][2] Market Data - The closing price of the company's stock is 8.83 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 9.294 billion yuan [5] - The company has a price-to-book ratio of 2.74 and a total share capital of 1,052.55 million shares [5][6]