Goldman Sachs(US:GS) Goldman Sachs·2025-10-22 14:58Investment Rating - The report indicates a negative sentiment for US equities with a sentiment indicator reading of -0.6, suggesting a cautious outlook for the market [5]. Core Insights - Despite recent market anxiety driven by de-grossing and tariff concerns, the positioning in the market has returned to a more favorable state, with elevated panic indicators that are not widespread. The medium-term growth outlook into 2026 remains positive, supported by policy, strong balance sheets, and increased investment in AI [2][6]. - The sentiment indicator data shows that 2025 stands out in terms of US equity positioning and sentiment, particularly when compared to 2024 [6][7]. - The report highlights that while certain sectors of the equity market appear well-subscribed, the overall market sentiment remains relatively unloved due to past policy uncertainties [14]. Summary by Sections Sentiment Indicator Analysis - The sentiment indicator tracks investor positioning across over 80% of the US equity market owned by institutional, retail, and foreign investors [13]. - Historical data shows that the best years for sentiment readings include 2024 with +1.00 and a 23% increase in the S&P 500, while the worst year was 2022 with -1.20 and a 19% decrease in the S&P 500 [10][11]. Technical Analysis - Trend-following funds are heavily net long across major equity futures, with only a marginal reduction in exposure recently, estimated at $2 billion globally. The model-implied flows remain modest, indicating limited risk of liquidity issues unless a significant market shock occurs [15][18].