Zhongfu Shenying Carbon Fiber (SH:688295) HTSC·2025-10-23 03:03Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" with a target price of RMB 31.80 [1][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 615 million in Q3 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 59.23% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 18.37%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 51.05 million, up 253.11% year-over-year but down 10.77% quarter-over-quarter [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the cumulative revenue reached RMB 1.537 billion, a year-over-year increase of 37.39%, with a net profit of RMB 62.93 million, reflecting an 854.72% increase year-over-year [1]. - The demand for wind power continues to support sales improvement, leading to a maintained "Buy" rating [1]. Revenue and Profitability - The company's comprehensive gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 17.82%, a decrease of 1.44 percentage points year-over-year. The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 21.58%, an increase of 10.0 percentage points year-over-year but a decrease of 2.96 percentage points quarter-over-quarter [2]. - The main raw material, acrylonitrile, had an average price of RMB 8,252 per ton in Q3 2025, down 5.0% year-over-year and 2.6% quarter-over-quarter [2]. Cost Management and Cash Flow - The company’s expense ratio for the first three quarters of 2025 was 15.05%, down 9.86 percentage points year-over-year, with absolute expenses decreasing by 17.0% to RMB 231 million [3]. - Operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2025 was RMB 34 million, down 85.3% year-over-year [3]. Industry Outlook - The carbon fiber industry is experiencing slow new capacity release, with demand from wind power and aerospace providing support for a stable supply-demand balance [4]. - As of mid-October, the average price for mainstream carbon fiber products remained stable, with a slight year-over-year decline of about 2-7% [4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is RMB 148 million, RMB 273 million, and RMB 422 million, respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 0.16, RMB 0.30, and RMB 0.47 [5]. - The company is assigned a 6x PB valuation for 2025, reflecting its operational turning point and strengthened market position following the full production of its Xining production line [5].