PDH(SH:600048) Ping An Securities·2025-10-23 04:56Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for Poly Developments (600048.SH) [1][7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 173.72 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.93 billion yuan, down 75.3% year-on-year [4][7]. - The decline in net profit was primarily due to a 2.5 percentage point drop in gross margin to 13.4%, a decrease in investment income by 1.79 billion yuan, and an increase in the proportion of minority shareholders' losses by 34.2 percentage points to 70.4% [7]. - The company focused on investment areas and actively recovered funds, achieving a signed amount of 201.73 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.5% year-on-year, and a signed area of 10.104 million square meters, down 25.1% year-on-year [7]. - The company has a significant number of ongoing and planned projects, with 549 projects under construction and a total construction area of 44.83 million square meters [7]. Financial Summary - The projected revenue for Poly Developments from 2023 to 2027 is as follows: 346.83 billion yuan in 2023, 311.67 billion yuan in 2024 (down 10.1%), 266.48 billion yuan in 2025 (down 14.5%), 221.17 billion yuan in 2026 (down 17.0%), and 194.63 billion yuan in 2027 (down 12.0%) [6][8]. - The net profit is expected to be 12.07 billion yuan in 2023, 5.00 billion yuan in 2024 (down 58.6%), 5.46 billion yuan in 2025 (up 9.1%), 6.51 billion yuan in 2026 (up 19.3%), and 7.51 billion yuan in 2027 (up 15.5%) [6][8]. - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve slightly from 13.9% in 2024 to 15.5% in 2027, while the net margin is expected to rise from 1.6% in 2024 to 3.9% in 2027 [6][8]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the company has sufficient resources to be realized, and the expected low base for the year due to impairment provisions in Q4 2024 supports the current forecasts [7]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 0.46 yuan, 0.54 yuan, and 0.63 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 16.6, 13.9, and 12.1 [7][8].