ToLand(SZ:300855) Guotou Securities·2025-10-23 07:31Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" investment rating to the company, with a 12-month target price of 33.4 CNY [5][8]. Core Views - The company experienced a revenue decline of 20.46% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with a total revenue of 859 million CNY and a net profit of 123 million CNY, down 52.21% year-on-year [1]. - The company's gross margin for the first three quarters was 28.05%, a decrease of 7.78 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 14.36%, down 9.55 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company is in a capacity ramp-up phase for its subsidiaries, which has led to temporary fluctuations in profitability due to high operational costs and the time required for revenue recognition [2][4]. - Significant growth in prepaid expenses indicates increased procurement of raw materials, with prepaid expenses rising to 43.76 million CNY, up 2079.75% from the beginning of the period [3]. - The company is deepening its layout in the aerospace industry chain, with the small and medium-sized components business expected to contribute positively to future performance as capacity ramps up [4]. Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenue growth rates of -12.5%, +47.3%, and +41.5% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profit growth rates of -28.7%, +83.6%, and +52.1% for the same years [5]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 0.48 CNY, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 58.1 [6][13]. - The company’s total assets are expected to grow from 2.28 billion CNY in 2025 to 3.04 billion CNY in 2027, indicating a positive long-term outlook [13].