Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-10-23 09:28Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Industrial Silicon - Supply - The low - electricity - price environment in the southwest region during the wet season is ending, and the growth rate of the ore - heating furnace operating rate in the southwest region is expected to slow down and decline. The furnace - opening growth rate in Xinjiang is also lower than expected, showing a slow - down trend. The overall operating rate of industrial silicon is expected to peak, and the supply - side pressure will gradually ease [4]. - Demand - The operating rate of the organic silicon industry has slowed down, with limited actual demand for industrial silicon. The demand from the recycled aluminum alloy sector remains stable, and the demand from the polysilicon sector is expected to increase steadily in the next two months [4]. - Market Outlook - If the supply - side operating rate enters the downward channel as expected and the downstream polysilicon demand improves substantially, the oversupply situation in the industrial silicon market will ease, and the industry may reach a key node for a price bottom - reversal [4]. Polysilicon - Market Logic - The short - term trading focus is on whether the October photovoltaic storage platform will be established, and then it will shift to the "November concentrated warehouse - receipt cancellation" expectation game. The market shows the characteristics of "increasing supply and stable demand" [9][10]. - Risk - The volatility of polysilicon futures is much higher than that of lithium carbonate and industrial silicon, with a relatively high overall risk level. Investors are advised to participate cautiously and control positions and hedge risks [10]. Summary by Directory I. Futures Data Industrial Silicon - The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract is 8705 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 220 yuan and a daily increase rate of 2.59%. The trading volume is 172346 lots, with a daily increase of 66824 lots and a daily increase rate of 63.33%. The open interest is 76195 lots, with a daily decrease of 20359 lots and a daily decrease rate of 21.09% [12][13]. - The number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts is 48371 lots, with a daily decrease of 367 lots and a daily decrease rate of 0.75% [13]. Polysilicon - The closing price of the polysilicon main contract is 50760 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 450 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.89%. The trading volume is 86148 lots, with a daily decrease of 14344 lots and a daily decrease rate of 14.27%. The open interest is 45407 lots, with a daily decrease of 3609 lots and a daily decrease rate of 7.36% [37]. - The number of polysilicon futures warehouse receipts is 9220 lots, with a daily decrease of 80 lots and a daily decrease rate of 0.9% [37]. II. Spot Data Industrial Silicon - The price of 99 industrial silicon in Xinjiang is 8700 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 50 yuan and a daily decrease rate of 0.57%. The price of 421 industrial silicon in Tianjin is 9800 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 50 yuan and a daily decrease rate of 0.51% [21]. - The price of industrial silicon powder (553) is 9950 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 50 yuan and a daily decrease rate of 0.50% [21]. Polysilicon - The price of N - type polysilicon re - feeding material is 53 yuan/kg, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 0.25 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 0.47% [46]. - The price of N - type silicon wafers (G10 - 182, 130um) is 1.35 yuan/piece, with no daily or weekly change [46]. III. Basis and Warehouse Receipts Industrial Silicon - The total number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts is 48371 lots, with a decrease of 367 lots compared with the previous period and a decrease rate of 0.56% [36]. - The basis of the industrial silicon main contract in East China (553) and (421) shows certain seasonal characteristics [30][31][32]. Polysilicon - The basis of the polysilicon main contract is 2000 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 450 yuan and a daily decrease rate of 18.37%, and a weekly increase of 1915 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 2252.94% [56]. - The total number of polysilicon warehouse receipts is 9300 lots, with a decrease of 80 lots compared with the previous period [57].