Yanjing Brewery(SZ:000729) Minsheng Securities·2025-10-23 10:29Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company shows sustained momentum in its U8 product line, with steady progress in national and multi-channel expansion. In Q3 2025, revenue increased by 1.5% year-on-year, with volume and price changes of +0.1% and +1.4% respectively. However, there was a deceleration in revenue growth due to external factors affecting downstream demand in the beer sector [1][3]. - Continuous improvement in core financial metrics is driving profitability upwards. The company's net profit margin increased by 2.7 percentage points year-on-year to 13.7% in Q3 2025, supported by a 2.8% decrease in cost per ton and a 2.2 percentage point increase in gross margin to 50.2% [2][3]. - The company is expected to continue reducing losses in Q4 2025, with performance in Q3 aligning with previous expectations. Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 156.20 billion, 164.48 billion, and 171.88 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 6.5%, 5.3%, and 4.5% respectively [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenues of 134.3 billion yuan, net profit attributable to shareholders of 17.7 billion yuan, and net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses of 16.9 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year increases of 4.6%, 37.4%, and 33.6% respectively [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenues of 48.7 billion yuan, with net profit and net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses at 6.7 billion and 6.5 billion yuan, respectively, marking year-on-year increases of 1.5%, 26.0%, and 24.6% [1]. Profitability and Cost Management - The company's cost management strategies have led to a reduction in management expenses by 0.9 percentage points to 10.1%, while the sales expense ratio remained stable. The effective tax rate was maintained at a low level of 13% [2]. - The report highlights that the company's profit elasticity has shown significant alpha, with a clear path for margin improvement and a commitment to systematic reforms that enhance operational efficiency [3]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue its national and multi-channel expansion, with different regional markets at various stages of development, allowing for sustained growth. The "14th Five-Year Plan" is anticipated to enhance production, sales, and supply chain capabilities, further clarifying the path for profitability improvement [3][4].