温氏股份（300498）：Q3肉鸡业务环比改善，负债率进一步下降

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-B" rating for the company [4][7]. Core Views - The company's Q3 chicken business showed a quarter-on-quarter improvement, and the debt ratio has further decreased [4]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 757.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.03%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 52.56 billion yuan, down 18.29% year-on-year [5]. - The company sold 27.67 million pigs in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 28.32%, generating revenue of 45.941 billion yuan, up 4.62% year-on-year [5]. - The average selling price of meat chickens increased significantly in Q3 compared to Q1 and Q2, indicating a recovery in market prices [6]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 259.37 billion yuan, down 9.76% year-on-year, and a net profit of 17.81 billion yuan, down 65.02% year-on-year [5]. - The basic earnings per share (EPS) for the first three quarters of 2025 was 0.79 yuan, with a weighted average return on equity (ROE) of 12.40%, a decrease of 5.37 percentage points year-on-year [5]. - The company's debt ratio at the end of Q3 was approximately 49.41%, continuing to decline from Q2 [5]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 67.21 billion yuan, 101.59 billion yuan, and 125.73 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.01 yuan, 1.53 yuan, and 1.89 yuan [7].