MTC(SZ:002429) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-10-23 14:43Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing pressure in its traditional business while new businesses are driving transformation and growth. The revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 13.896 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.03%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1 billion yuan, down 27.13%. In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.413 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.51%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13.72%, with a net profit of 339 million yuan, down 26.64% year-on-year but up 3.66% quarter-on-quarter. Due to low production efficiency and capacity utilization in overseas TV ODM, the profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised downwards, with expected net profits of 1.37 billion, 1.68 billion, and 2.02 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to EPS of 0.30, 0.37, and 0.45 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 20.5, 16.7, and 13.9 times. The company is expected to see significant profit recovery driven by the intelligent transformation of overseas production capacity and the high-end transformation of LED products, as well as breakthroughs in the optical communication business [1][2]. Summary by Sections Traditional Business - In Q3 2025, the company adjusted its supply chain to ensure overseas TV sales during peak season, leading to lower revenue and profit growth rates in the short term. The company plans to begin automation upgrades in Q4 to improve efficiency and reduce costs [2]. LED Industry - The market share of high-end Mini/Micro LED products continues to rise, with the introduction of RGB Mini LED backlight solutions. The shipment of high-value-added products in the Mini LED backlight sector is expected to grow, reinforcing the company's competitive position in the high-end display market [2]. Optical Communication Industry - As of Q3 2025, the company has completed customer sample testing for 400G/800G optical modules and successfully produced 2.5G optical chips. The production line for optical modules is undergoing intelligent upgrades to enhance delivery capabilities. The company is also strategically developing next-generation optical communication technologies based on its expertise in Micro LED and optical components [2]. Emerging Business Contributions - In the first three quarters of 2025, profits from new businesses, primarily in the LED and optical communication sectors, as well as Beijing Fengxing, accounted for over 60% of total profits, becoming a significant driver of the company's transformation and growth [2]. Financial Metrics - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 14.39%, with a slight year-on-year increase. The increase in high-value LED products is expected to drive overall gross margin improvement. However, the low capacity utilization in the smart terminal business has negatively impacted gross margins. The operating expense ratio for Q3 2025 was 6.78%, with slight increases in sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios, leading to a net profit margin of 6.26%, down 0.69 percentage points year-on-year [3].