BAOFENG ENERGY(SH:600989) Guoxin Securities·2025-10-24 01:14Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][26][30] Core Views - The company's Q3 2025 net profit attributable to shareholders increased significantly year-on-year, with revenue reaching 12.73 billion yuan (up 72.5% YoY, up 5.6% QoQ) and net profit at 3.23 billion yuan (up 162.3% YoY, down 1.5% QoQ) [9][26] - The expansion of polyolefin production capacity continues to contribute to profit growth, with polyethylene and polypropylene sales reaching 678,200 tons and 667,100 tons respectively (up 171% and 165% YoY, up 6% QoQ) [17][26] - The company maintains a cost advantage in coal-based olefins, with average procurement prices for key raw materials remaining low, leading to improved gross margins [20][24] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported a gross margin of 38.4% and a net margin of 25.4%, with total expenses at 7.5% [9][26] - The average selling prices for polyethylene and polypropylene were 6,439 yuan/ton and 6,180 yuan/ton respectively (down 8% and 9% YoY) [17][26] Production and Sales - The company’s EVA/LDPE product output and sales in Q3 were 53,900 tons and 56,700 tons (up 84% and 118% YoY) [2][17] - The company’s coke sales reached 1.7739 million tons in Q3 (up 0.2% YoY, up 4.2% QoQ) [18][26] Cost Structure - The average procurement prices for gasification coal, coking coal, and thermal coal were 448 yuan/ton, 740 yuan/ton, and 325 yuan/ton respectively, showing significant year-on-year decreases [20][24] - The cost advantage of coal-based olefins remains substantial, with average costs of 6,338 yuan/ton for coal-based and 7,456 yuan/ton for oil-based olefins, resulting in a cost advantage of approximately 1,119 yuan/ton [24][26] Future Outlook - The company forecasts net profits of 12.206 billion yuan, 12.413 billion yuan, and 13.267 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.66 yuan, 1.69 yuan, and 1.81 yuan [26][28]