Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-10-24 02:10Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The domestic soybean market is supported by bullish factors in the short term, with strong buying enthusiasm from funds, but the industry should be cautious about hedging after the sharp rise [3] - The current upward trend of the soybean market is due to factors such as the restraint and price - holding of the grain - selling end, disasters in the southern producing areas, and rigid debt - repayment needs. The continuous decoupling from US soybeans due to Sino - US economic and trade relations provides emotional support [3] - The current rise may be based on the current spot logic, and there is no significant expectation for the long - term supply - demand structure. The core issue is how to solve the problem of the shortage of imported soybeans at the beginning of next year [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for the soybean No. 1 11 - contract is 3900 - 4100 yuan, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.16% and a historical percentile of 24.7% [2] Risk Strategies Inventory Management for Sellers - For those with a long spot position, when there is a high demand for selling new soybeans after the autumn harvest and significant short - term selling pressure, they can short the A2601 soybean No. 1 futures contract at a ratio of 30% when the price is above 4100 yuan to lock in planting profits [2] - When soybeans are concentrated on the market and the seller's bargaining power weakens, they can sell the A2511 - C - 4050 call option at a ratio of 30% with a holding range of 30 - 50 to increase the grain - selling price [2] Procurement Management for Buyers - For those with a short spot position who are worried about rising raw material prices and increased procurement costs, they should mainly wait to purchase spot goods in the medium term and focus on long - term procurement management. They can go long on A2603 and A2605 contracts after the price bottoms out in the fourth quarter [2] Market Conditions - On the previous trading day, the soybean market accelerated its rise. The futures market broke through with increasing volume, and the spot prices rose to varying degrees. The 01 - contract on the futures market rose 1.56% to 4113 yuan, with an increase of 24,600 in positions and a trading volume of over 160,000 contracts, both hitting new highs since the contract was listed. The registered warehouse receipts remained at 7090 [3] Bullish and Bearish Factors Bullish Factors - The reduction in production and delayed listing in the southern producing areas have increased the demand for goods from the northeastern producing areas, changing the supply - demand structure seasonally [6] - The restraint in the grain - selling sentiment, debt - repayment needs, and increased rigid purchases in the sales areas due to colder weather support the market [6] Bearish Factors - The selling pressure is scattered, and the subsequent listing volume in the southern producing areas will increase [6] - On October 24 at 10:30, CGSG.com plans to auction 65,201 tons of domestic soybeans from 2022 and 2023 [6] - Currently, the supply of imported soybeans is sufficient, and the rising price suppresses the demand for domestic soybean crushing. The sales of medium - and low - protein soybeans are in trouble [7] Price and Basis Data Spot Price and Basis - On October 23, 2025, the spot prices of domestic third - grade soybeans in Harbin, Nenjiang, Jiamusi, and Changchun were 3890, 3840, 3920, and 3970 yuan respectively, with corresponding basis values of - 213, - 217, - 137, and - 87 yuan [7] Futures Closing Price - From October 22 to 23, 2025, the closing prices of soybean No. 1 11, 01, 03, 05, 07, and 09 contracts all rose, with daily increases of 55, 56, 52, 47, 51, and 55 yuan respectively, and corresponding increases of 1.36%, 1.38%, 1.28%, 1.15%, 1.25%, and 1.34% [7]