天润乳业（600419）：单季度利润承压，静待行业供需平衡

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2][4]. Core Views - The company experienced a slight decline in revenue in Q3 due to ongoing weak demand in the dairy industry, with a year-on-year revenue decrease of 4.84% [4]. - The company's net profit for Q3 was 11.24 million, down 77.60% year-on-year, while the non-recurring net profit was 18.75 million, a decrease of 62.71% [2][4]. - The report anticipates that the company will show significant profit elasticity once supply and demand in the industry balance out, with projected EPS for 2025-2027 being 0.14, 0.54, and 0.71 respectively [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 2.074 billion, a decrease of 3.81% year-on-year, and a net profit of -10.62 million, down 147.66% year-on-year [2][4]. - In Q3 alone, the company reported revenue of 678 million, a decline of 4.84% year-on-year, and a net profit of 11.24 million, down 77.60% year-on-year [2][4]. Product and Regional Performance - Revenue from various product segments in Q3 included 358 million from ambient dairy products, 264 million from chilled dairy products, and 30.47 million from livestock products, with year-on-year changes of -3.81%, -5.87%, and +80.10% respectively [4]. - Revenue from different regions showed an increase of 10.16% in the domestic market, while revenue from outside the region decreased by 13.69% [4]. Operational Strategies - The company is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvement through various measures, including expanding market channels and launching new product flavors [4]. - The company has opened over 800 stores nationwide and is optimizing its cattle structure to enhance breeding efficiency [4]. Profitability Outlook - The report indicates that the company's gross margin in Q3 was 14.72%, down 5.15 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to product mix effects [4]. - The overall profit outlook remains under pressure in the short term, but the company is expected to benefit from improved profitability once the industry stabilizes [4].