Guangdong Hongda (SZ:002683) Guohai Securities·2025-10-24 10:33Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown a slight increase in net profit attributable to shareholders in the first three quarters of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 0.5% [6] - The report expresses optimism about the long-term growth of the mining service and defense sectors [6][9] - The company is actively integrating its civil explosives business and is committed to transitioning towards military applications, aiming to become a globally competitive military enterprise [10] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 14.552 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 55.9% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 653 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.5% [6] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 643 million yuan, up 5.5% year-on-year [6] - The gross profit margin was 19.94%, down 1.42 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The net profit margin was 8.18%, down 1.25 percentage points year-on-year [6] Quarterly Performance Summary - In Q3 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 5.401 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.1% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 1.7% [7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 was 149 million yuan, down 36.9% year-on-year and 63.6% quarter-on-quarter [7] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses for Q3 was 161 million yuan [7] - The operating cash flow for Q3 was -9 million yuan [7] Investment Highlights - The decline in Q3 net profit is attributed to increased expenses from the consolidation of Xuefeng Technology and the need for business expansion, leading to higher borrowing costs and a decrease in the gross margin of the mining service sector [8] - The company is enhancing its civil explosives business and has made significant strides in military transformation, with a focus on integrating its operations [9][10] - The company aims to become a leading player in the mining service sector and the civil explosives market, with a strong emphasis on military applications [10] Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve operating revenues of 19.953 billion yuan, 25.221 billion yuan, and 28.931 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [11] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1.042 billion yuan, 1.307 billion yuan, and 1.705 billion yuan for the same years [11] - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are forecasted to be 28, 22, and 17 times for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [10][11]