Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-10-24 12:14Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The marginal bullish factors under the influence of shipping sanctions are unstable. If the special port charges are mutually cancelled, the current price of the 01 contract may not support the log valuation and is likely to correct downward. [5] - Seasonal inventory reduction continues, but the downstream processing plants feel the market is not booming. The spot price has not increased, indicating a lack of prosperity in the spot market. [5] - The adjustment of delivery premium and discount in Chongqing and Penglai is unlikely to be realized in the 01 contract. If the impact of port charges fades, it may enter a rhythm of deep discount for delivery in mid - to late December. [5] - The near - term trading logic is that the repair of the discounted basis on the futures market is driven by the bullish factors in the far - term. [6] - The far - term trading expectation is the marginal bullish expectation caused by the increase in import costs or the reduction in import volume due to shipping sanctions, but this expectation has weakened. [8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The implementation of the special port charges for US ships since October 14, 2025, has led to a short - term price increase in the market. However, the far - term bullish factors may become unstable as the Sino - US trade consultation in Malaysia from October 24 - 27 may propose a phased solution. [5] - Seasonal inventory reduction continues, but the downstream market is not strong, and the spot price has not increased, indicating a weak spot market. [5] - The adjustment of delivery premium and discount in Chongqing and Penglai is unlikely to be realized in the 01 contract, and it may enter a deep - discount delivery rhythm in mid - to late December if the port charge impact fades. [5] 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - The 11 - contract is expected to enter delivery at a discount, and the 01 - contract is expected to rise and then fall, with a focus on short - selling on rallies. [9] - For basis and calendar - spread strategies, industrial customers can consider buying the basis, and the 11 - 01 calendar spread should be on the sidelines. The short 11 - 01 calendar spread has been stopped for profit, and the covered call strategy for the 01 contract has also been stopped for profit. [14] 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - For inventory management, when the log import volume is high and inventory is at a high level, enterprises can short log futures to lock in profits and make up for production costs, with a 25% hedging ratio and an entry range of 820 - 830. [12] - For procurement management, when the procurement inventory is low, enterprises can buy log futures to lock in procurement costs, with a 25% hedging ratio and an entry range of 780 - 800. [12] Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Bullish information: Inventory is seasonally declining and at a historical low, and the collection of special port charges is bullish for far - term prices. [15] - Bearish information: Low willingness of buyers to take delivery and high delivery costs for sellers in the delivery process, and there is an expectation of Sino - US trade relaxation in the next week's consultation. [15] - Spot transaction information: The report provides the spot prices and basis of different log specifications on October 24, 2025. [16] Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - The 01 - contract added 4520 lots this week, showing a pattern of breaking through and then rising and oscillating technically. [17] - In terms of the calendar - spread structure, the C - structure deepened this week, with the calendar spread reaching a maximum of - 44 from - 30 last week's close and returning to - 32 by Friday's close. No new positions should be added considering the limited trading days. [19] Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Valuation - The warehouse - receipt cost in the Yangtze River Delta region is around 831, and in Shandong region it is around 836. The willingness of buyers to take delivery is around 792. When the price approaches the warehouse - receipt cost, it is considered overvalued. [28] 4.2 Import Profit - The import profit has been repaired to some extent. Reducing the proportion of imported materials and increasing the proportion of integrated materials can improve the import profit of the whole ship. [29] Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection - From October 25 to November 3, 16 ships are expected to arrive at the port, with a total cargo volume of 564,000 cubic meters. The trend of inventory reduction is expected to continue. [35] - As of October 17, the daily average outbound volume at the port reached 63,200 cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 5,900 cubic meters. [35]