神火股份（000933）：公司信息更新报告：Q3电解铝利润弹性充分释放、煤炭板块筑底回升

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company's Q3 report indicates a strong release of profit elasticity in the electrolytic aluminum segment, while the coal segment is showing signs of recovery [3][4] - The company achieved a total revenue of 31 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.49 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 1.38% year-on-year [3] - The report anticipates a robust long-term growth potential and investment value due to strong profitability in the electrolytic aluminum business and recovery in the coal business [3][4] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3, the company reported a revenue of 10.58 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2.04%, but a net profit of 1.59 billion yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 32.52% [3] - The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is estimated at 5.8 billion, 6.435 billion, and 6.975 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 34.7%, 10.9%, and 8.4% [3][6] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are projected to be 2.58, 2.86, and 3.10 yuan, corresponding to price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 9.3, 8.4, and 7.7 times [3][6] Business Segment Analysis - The coal business has a certified production capacity of 8.55 million tons per year, with a recovery in profitability due to rising coal prices in Q3 [4] - The electrolytic aluminum production capacity is 1.7 million tons per year, with a strong profit margin supported by a decrease in alumina prices [4] - The company plans to produce 1.7 million tons of aluminum products and 7.2 million tons of commercial coal in 2025, with expectations for full-capacity production at the Yunnan project [5] Investor Returns - The company is committed to returning value to investors through share buybacks, having repurchased shares worth 255 million yuan as of September 30, 2025 [5]