SEALAND SECURITIES(SZ:000750) Guohai Securities·2025-10-24 13:34Group 1: Report Overview - The report focuses on the impact of fund redemption fee reform on institutional behavior and the bond market, and also mentions the potential influence of tax - preferential policies [6][9] Group 2: Report Core View - The adjustment of redemption fees is generally beneficial to medium - and long - term treasury bonds, and money funds and inter - bank certificate of deposit funds will also indirectly benefit. The relatively pressured varieties mainly include 30Y treasury bonds, 10Y CDB bonds, and Tier 2 capital bonds. The final official draft's implementation intensity determines the market volatility. Tax - preferential policies are also potential key policy variables [6][21] Group 3: Several Possible Scenarios of Policy Implementation - Three main scenarios are set for analysis: full implementation according to the solicitation draft; waiving redemption fees after holding for 3 months; waiving redemption fees after holding for 1 month. There may also be more lenient fee requirements for customized products with a high proportion of institutional investors [10][11] Group 4: Impact on Institutional Allocation Behavior 4.1 Bank Self - operation - Redemption fee adjustment reduces the attractiveness of funds as flexible allocation tools and affects the flexibility of bank self - operation in quarterly assessment. Banks may convert some fund outsourcing to direct bond investment, preferring medium - and long - term treasury bonds. The strictness of policy implementation determines the intensity and scope of behavior adjustment [12][13] 4.2 Bank Wealth Management - The core impact is the weakening of the fund's liquidity management function. Wealth management may adjust in two aspects: reallocating assets to more liquid ones and adopting a more cautious bond investment strategy. The adjustment amplitude varies with different scenarios [14][15] 4.3 Insurance - The impact on insurance is relatively small, and its allocation behavior remains relatively stable [16] Group 5: Impact on the Bond Market 5.1 Negative Impact - To cope with redemption pressure, funds may sell some holdings, causing demand for 30Y treasury bonds, 10Y CDB bonds, and Tier 2 capital bonds to decline and interest rate centers to rise [18][20] 5.2 Positive Impact - Bank self - operation's direct investment benefits medium - and long - term treasury bonds. Wealth management's direct investment may focus on short - end credit bonds. Overall, the adjustment benefits medium - and long - term treasury bonds, and money funds and inter - bank certificate of deposit funds also indirectly benefit [21]