Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-10-24 13:34Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Recent sanctions on Russian oil companies by the US and geopolitical rumors about Venezuela have pushed up the crude oil market, with Brent crude returning to $65, a cumulative increase of over $5. However, the current geopolitical risks are only at the news level and have not escalated into major conflicts. The impact is estimated to be $2 - 3 for 1 - 2 trading days, and the market has basically reflected this. Sanctions mainly affect sentiment, and the actual supply - demand is less affected. If the situation does not escalate, there is a risk of a market decline due to the cooling of geopolitical sentiment before next Monday. In the medium - to - long - term, the market is still suppressed by fundamental negatives, and the rebound space is limited [1]. 3. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended to wait and see for now and go short on rallies [3]. - Arbitrage: Close short positions on the monthly spread at an appropriate time and wait and see in the short term [3]. - Options: Wait and see [4]. 4. Logic梳理 Short - term rise driver - The core driver of the short - term rise is the increase in geopolitical risk sentiment. US sanctions on two major Russian oil companies and geopolitical rumors about Venezuela have pushed up the overnight crude oil market. The impact of geopolitical news on the crude oil market is currently in the "news disturbance stage", with a neutral estimated impact of $2 - 3 for 1 - 2 trading days [7]. Limited impact on actual supply - demand - The US sanctions have room for maneuver. Rosneft's German subsidiary is exempted, and Russia can hedge the impact by increasing oil transportation to Germany and supplies to the Asia - Pacific region. - The supply side has spare adjustment capacity. The Kuwaiti oil minister said OPEC is ready to increase production. - Russia's stance indicates that the sanctions are more for pressure rather than blocking exports, and the impact on actual exports is limited. - The current rise is mainly sentiment - driven and does not change the medium - to - long - term fundamental pattern of the crude oil market. Compared with July - September, the geopolitical support has weakened, and the fundamental pressure has increased [8]. 5. Related Information - Brazilian President Lula will discuss topics including Venezuela with Trump. He hopes to persuade Trump to cancel tariffs on Brazilian products and sanctions on Brazilian officials [9]. - The Kuwaiti oil minister said OPEC is ready to increase oil production if requested [9]. - As of the week ending October 17, US natural gas inventories were 380.8 billion cubic feet, an increase of 8.7 billion cubic feet from the previous week, 3.4 billion cubic feet more than the same period last year (a year - on - year increase of 0.9%), and 16.4 billion cubic feet higher than the 5 - year average (a 4.5% increase) [9]. 6. Price and Spread Changes - Global crude oil prices: On October 24, 2025, Brent crude M + 2 was $65.27, WTI crude M + 2 was $61.19, SC crude M + 3 was 459.70 yuan/barrel, etc. There were corresponding price changes compared with previous periods [4][10][11]. - Arbitrage indicators: Various indicators such as Brent M + 2 SC M + 3, SC M + 3 theoretical price, SC theoretical landing profit, etc. showed different degrees of change in weekly and monthly terms [4].