Yunnan Aluminium (SZ:000807) HUAXI Securities·2025-10-25 11:20Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 44.072 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.47%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.398 billion yuan, up 15.14% year-on-year [2] - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 14.993 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.13%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of only 2.23%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.630 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 25.31% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 9.09% [2] - The company's gross profit margin in Q3 2025 was 17.95%, down from 18.10% in Q2 2025, attributed to a high proportion of externally purchased alumina despite rising aluminum prices [3] - As of Q3 2025, the company had cash and cash equivalents of 10.675 billion yuan, a significant increase from 7.570 billion yuan in H1 2025 and 8.201 billion yuan in Q3 2024. The asset-liability ratio was 23.21%, down from 23.28% in H1 2025 and 24.99% in Q3 2024, indicating a strong financial position [4] Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 57.6 billion yuan, 58.9 billion yuan, and 60.2 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 5.8%, 2.3%, and 2.2% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 6.5 billion yuan, 7.41 billion yuan, and 8.29 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 47.4%, 14.0%, and 11.9% respectively [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.87 yuan, 2.14 yuan, and 2.39 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, maintaining the profit forecast [5] - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected to be 12.36, 10.85, and 9.70 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5] Profitability and Valuation - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 18.4% in 2025 to 22.0% in 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [6] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 19.2% in 2025, 18.5% in 2026, and 17.7% in 2027, reflecting strong financial performance [6] - The asset-liability ratio is expected to decrease significantly to 3.0% by 2027, indicating improved financial stability [8]