XINJI ENERGY(SH:601918) Xinda Securities·2025-10-25 11:15Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xinji Energy, indicating a positive outlook for the company's stock performance [1][7]. Core Insights - The coal and electricity sectors are showing improvement, which is expected to significantly enhance the company's performance. The concentrated commissioning of power plants in 2026 is anticipated to contribute to profits [1][2][3]. - The company reported a revenue of 9.01 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 1.95%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.477 billion yuan, down 19.06% year-on-year [1][2]. - The report highlights the expected benefits from the commissioning of new power plants and the potential for increased profitability due to favorable weather conditions in Q4 [3][5]. Summary by Sections Coal Sector - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company produced 16.8037 million tons of raw coal, an increase of 7.87% year-on-year, and sold 14.4685 million tons of commercial coal, up 4.95% year-on-year. The average selling price of coal was 523.21 yuan per ton, down 6.91% year-on-year [2]. - The report anticipates continued improvement in coal prices due to the approaching cold winter, which is expected to positively impact the company's performance [2]. Electricity Sector - The company achieved an electricity generation of 10.38 billion kWh in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 27.90%. The average on-grid electricity price was 371.5 yuan per MWh, down 8.45% year-on-year [3]. - The commissioning of new power plants is expected to further boost electricity generation and support price increases in 2026 [3][5]. Financial Projections - The report adjusts the net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 2.069 billion, 2.585 billion, and 2.625 billion yuan, respectively. The corresponding P/E ratios are projected to be 8.89, 7.11, and 7.01 times [7][6]. - The company is expected to achieve a significant increase in free cash flow following the peak of capital expenditures, enhancing its potential for high dividends [5][7].