东方电缆(603606):公司点评:海缆交付加速,业绩拐点确立

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 7.5 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.9%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 914 million RMB, a decrease of 1.95% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue reached 3.07 billion RMB, up 16.6% year-on-year and 34.2% quarter-on-quarter, with net profit of 441 million RMB, marking a 53.1% year-on-year increase and a 129.6% quarter-on-quarter increase [2]. - The delivery of submarine cables accelerated in Q3, establishing a performance inflection point. Revenue from submarine and high-voltage cables for the first three quarters was 3.55 billion RMB, up 35.8% year-on-year, with Q3 revenue at 1.59 billion RMB, a 109.2% quarter-on-quarter increase. The company’s contract liabilities (advance payments) reached 1.57 billion RMB, an increase of 83.1% year-on-year, while inventory grew to 3.63 billion RMB, up 105% year-on-year [3]. - As of October 23, 2025, the company had a backlog of orders amounting to approximately 19.6 billion RMB, with a slight structural improvement. The backlog for submarine and high-voltage cables was about 11.7 billion RMB, up 6.7% quarter-on-quarter [4]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 7.5 billion RMB, with a net profit of 914 million RMB. Q3 revenue was 3.07 billion RMB, with a net profit of 441 million RMB [2]. Operational Analysis - The company’s submarine cable delivery accelerated, with significant revenue growth in Q3. The backlog of orders remains high, indicating potential for future revenue growth [3][4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 1.54 billion RMB, 2.05 billion RMB, and 2.55 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 30, 22, and 18 [5].