北新建材（000786）：行业底部业绩承压，静待需求复苏

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company is experiencing pressure on performance due to industry downturns, with a focus on waiting for demand recovery [1] - Despite the challenges in the main gypsum board business, the waterproof and coating segments are expanding against the industry trend, indicating potential for future growth [3] - The company is actively optimizing its debt situation while also pursuing both organic and external growth strategies [2] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 19.91 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 2.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.59 billion yuan, down 17.8% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 29.5%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 13.3%, down 2.4 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The company’s operating cash flow for the third quarter was 1.54 billion yuan, a significant decrease of 43.1% year-on-year [2] Business Strategy Summary - The company plans to invest in a new production line in Ningbo, Zhejiang, to enhance its gypsum board capacity and reduce logistics costs [2] - An intention to acquire a 100% stake in an overseas building materials company is noted, which aligns with the company's core business and is expected to enhance its international presence [2] Earnings Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to reach 25.98 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit of 3.18 billion yuan, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 12.0% over the next three years [3] - The estimated P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 12.5, 11.4, and 10.0 respectively [3]