TIANSHAN ALUMINUM(SZ:002532) Minsheng Securities·2025-10-26 11:54Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Tianshan Aluminum [5][7]. Core Views - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 22.32 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.3%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.34 billion yuan, up 8.3% year-on-year [1]. - The increase in aluminum prices has driven profitability, with the average aluminum price for the first three quarters of 2025 at 20,447 yuan per ton, a 3.7% increase year-on-year [2]. - The company is expected to release an additional 200,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity in 2026, enhancing its integrated layout and resource security [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 6.99 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year, but a net profit of 1.26 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 24.3% [1][2]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was 27.2%, up 4.7 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to rising aluminum prices [2][3]. Production Capacity and Cost Advantages - The company currently has an electrolytic aluminum capacity of 1.2 million tons, with an actual annual output of approximately 1.16 million tons [2]. - The company benefits from low energy costs due to its operations in Xinjiang, where coal resources are abundant, contributing to a strong sustainability of high profitability [4]. Future Outlook - The strategic acquisition of three bauxite mines in Indonesia and plans to invest 1.556 billion USD to build a 2 million ton alumina production line are expected to further expand the company's production capabilities [4]. - The company has also secured a 50% stake in Elite Mining Guinea S.A. and plans to produce 5-6 million tons of bauxite annually, enhancing its raw material supply [4]. Earnings Forecast - The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is 4.70 billion yuan, 5.74 billion yuan, and 6.33 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 13, 11, and 10 times [5][6].