Huafon Spandex(SZ:002064) Guohai Securities·2025-10-26 12:32Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][11]. Core Insights - The company demonstrates resilience at the bottom of the cycle, with a focus on the anticipated turning points for spandex and adipic acid prices [7][8]. - The company reported a revenue of 18.109 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 11.11%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.462 billion yuan, down 27.45% year-on-year [6][11]. - The gross profit margin for the company was 14.1%, a decline of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 8.1%, down 1.8 percentage points year-on-year [6][11]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 5.973 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.9%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.6% [6][7]. - The net profit for Q3 2025 was 478 million yuan, a decrease of 3.7% year-on-year and a slight decrease of 0.2% quarter-on-quarter [6][7]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was 14.7%, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.1 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.6 percentage points [6][7]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company is a leader in the domestic spandex and adipic acid industries, with significant cost advantages at the bottom of the product cycle [8]. - The spandex industry is nearing the end of new capacity additions, with some smaller capacities exiting the market, leading to increased industry concentration [8]. - The adipic acid industry is expected to reach a bottom, with no new capacity planned for 2025 and some projects postponed, which may boost demand due to domestic technological breakthroughs [8]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 25.6 billion yuan, 28 billion yuan, and 30 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.96 billion yuan, 2.5 billion yuan, and 3.09 billion yuan [11][17]. - The company is expected to maintain a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 22, 17, and 14 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, reflecting its strong market position and cost advantages [11][17].