STL(SZ:002648) Guoxin Securities·2025-10-26 12:31Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][4][16] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 34.77 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.7%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.76 billion yuan, up 1.7% year-on-year, while the non-recurring net profit was 4.24 billion yuan, reflecting a 3.7% increase year-on-year [2][7] - The third quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 11.31 billion yuan, down 12.2% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.01 billion yuan, down 38.2% year-on-year, primarily due to routine maintenance of production facilities [2][7] - The company is investing 30 billion yuan in a high-performance catalytic new materials project and 25.7 billion yuan in a new α-olefin comprehensive utilization high-end materials industrial park, expected to be operational by 2026 [4][11] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 34.77 billion yuan, with a net profit of 3.76 billion yuan and a non-recurring net profit of 4.24 billion yuan [2][7] - The gross margin was 21.0%, down 2.6 percentage points year-on-year, while the non-recurring net profit margin was 11.9%, down 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [2][7] Market Trends - The third quarter of 2025 experienced a decline in prices for C2 and C3 downstream products due to falling crude oil prices, with the average price of domestic propane at 569.4 USD/ton, down 13.0% year-on-year [3][11] - The average market prices for various products in the third quarter included polypropylene at 6,870 yuan/ton and polyethylene at 7,330 yuan/ton, with some products experiencing significant price drops [3][11] Investment Projects - The company is focusing on high-performance catalytic new materials and has established a high-level R&D team to address key technological challenges [4][11] - The α-olefin comprehensive utilization high-end materials industrial park project is set to enhance the company's product offerings in high-end polyolefins and other advanced materials [4][11] Profit Forecasts - The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 5.81 billion yuan, 6.55 billion yuan, and 7.66 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding diluted EPS of 1.72 yuan, 1.94 yuan, and 2.27 yuan [4][16]