南华期货生猪产业周报：旺季可期-20251026

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Policy interventions are frequent, and the far - month supply of live pigs may be affected. Long - term strategic bullishness is possible, but the short - to - medium term is still based on fundamentals. The policy bottom has emerged, but the market bottom may require a production cycle to form. Currently, the fundamental situation is one of oversupply, but with the arrival of the peak season, demand is expected to improve, and there may be a structural shortage of large pigs, supporting peak - season prices [2]. - The decline momentum of the market is slowing, and there is a possibility of a staged rebound. The 11000 - 13500 range may be the bottom - rebound grinding range [10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Policy end: The government has launched a pig reserve purchase policy at a pig - grain ratio of 6:1, indicating the determination for price control, and the policy bottom has emerged [2]. - Fundamental situation: Currently, supply exceeds demand. Due to policy expectations, epidemics in some provinces, and transportation issues, there was concentrated slaughter during the double festivals, leading to a rapid decline in short - term pig prices [2]. - Near - term trading logic: High pig inventory, heavy slaughter pressure on pig enterprises, concentrated slaughter by second - fattening farms during the peak season, and the entry of speculative second - fattening due to low pig prices [5]. - Long - term trading logic: Policy - led expectations of reducing the number of reproductive sows, weakening breeding profits, and the peak - season sales expectation from the fourth quarter to the Spring Festival [8]. 3.1.2 Speculative Strategy Recommendations - Trend judgment: The decline momentum is slowing, and there may be a staged rebound [10]. - Price range: The low point of the main contract last week may be a staged low, and there may be a second bottom - testing near contract expiration. The 11000 - 13500 range may be the bottom - rebound grinding range [10]. - Basis, calendar spread, and hedging arbitrage strategies: Unwind previous short positions, wait and see, or lightly bet on the peak - season rebound. The basis is expected to strengthen during the peak season, and consider staging calendar spread positive spreads [11][15]. 3.1.3 Industry Customer Strategy Recommendations - Inventory management: For high - inventory enterprises, short live - pig futures, sell call options, or buy out - of - the - money put options to manage risks [12]. - Procurement management: For enterprises with future procurement plans, buy live - pig forward contracts, sell put options, or buy out - of - the - money call options to manage risks [12]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Market Information 3.2.1 This Week's Main Information - Positive information: Increased willingness of second - fattening to enter the market; the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs predicts that pig and pork prices may stop falling and rebound in the second half of the fourth quarter; the pig price in mid - October may be the annual low; a hearing on the anti - dumping case of pork and pig by - products will be held [14][16]. - Negative information: Continuous decline in the slaughter quotes of large enterprises; significant year - on - year increase in the number of live - pig slaughter by listed companies in September [16]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Main Information Pay attention to the slaughter quotes of large enterprises [16]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation This week, the main live - pig contract showed a staged stabilization trend. It opened at 11800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and closed at 12175 yuan/ton at the weekend, rising 375 points or 4.33%. The open interest increased by 5425 contracts to 112,000 contracts, indicating intensified long - short competition [16]. 3.3.2 Basis and Calendar Spread Structure Analysis - Calendar spread structure: The overall live - pig calendar spread shows a contango structure. Although the 1 - 3 month spread shows a back structure, it is a normal seasonal pattern. The near - end price is under pressure due to epidemics and transportation difficulties [18]. - Basis structure: Reduced live - pig slaughter, stable and rebounding spot prices, and a possible structural shortage of large pigs drive the basis to strengthen [22]. 3.4 Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis - The current live - pig breeding profit is narrowing, with losses in the profit of purchasing piglets and negative average profit per head for self - breeding and self - raising this week. The profit of selling piglets has also turned negative. The profit of second - fattening is attractive due to the high seasonal spread between standard and fat pigs. The slaughter profit is improving, and the terminal consumption may pick up during the peak season [25]. 3.5 Chapter 5: This Week's Supply - Demand Situation 3.5.1 Supply - Side Situation - Reproductive sows: In August, the number of reproductive sows was 40.38 million, a decrease of 40,000 from July. The data from Steel Union shows a downward trend, and the culling of sows has increased [29]. - Live pigs: The inventory of large - scale enterprises in the first half of the year was at a high level in the past three years, and the average slaughter weight remained stable this week [31]. - Piglets: Piglet prices are relatively low compared to last year, showing a seasonal decline, and the profit margin continues to decline [33]. - Second - fattening: The spread between standard and fat pigs has widened rapidly this week, and the utilization rate of second - fattening pens has decreased significantly [35]. - Feed: Corn prices are fluctuating downward, while soybean meal prices remain stable [37]. 3.5.2 Demand - Side Situation - Slaughter: Slaughter enterprises had high slaughter volumes in the first half of the year. Current slaughter profits have turned positive, cold - storage inventory is gradually increasing, and there are signs of inventory preparation. This week, slaughter profits slightly declined, and the average post - slaughter weight slowly increased [42]. - Terminal consumption: Terminal consumption remains weak. The fresh - meat sales rate of slaughter enterprises is at the lowest level in the past five years seasonally, and the spread between white - haired and fresh - meat prices is the worst in the same period [44]. 3.5.3 Import - Export Situation - Import: The import volume is at the lowest level in the same period in the past five years [46]. - Export: The export volume is at the highest level in the same period in the past five years [51]. 3.5.4 Cost - Profit Situation - Breeding profit: The breeding profit is narrowing, with losses in the profit of purchasing piglets and negative average profit per head for self - breeding and self - raising [25]. - Cost: Corn prices are fluctuating downward, and soybean meal prices are stable. The cost of second - fattening is also presented in the report [37][55].