Jiajiayue(SH:603708) GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2025-10-26 12:45Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [5][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in net profit, with a 470% year-on-year growth in non-recurring net profit, attributed to supply chain reforms that enhanced profit elasticity [1][4]. - Despite a decline in revenue by 3.87% year-on-year in Q3 2025, the company achieved a net profit of 22.77 million yuan, marking a 24.34% increase compared to the previous year [1][4]. - The company is expected to enter a profit elasticity release period due to stable same-store performance and reduced losses in out-of-province operations, alongside supply chain reforms that improve gross margins [10]. Revenue and Profitability - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 4.581 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.87% year-on-year, with a total revenue of 13.588 billion yuan for the first three quarters, also down by 3.81% [2]. - The gross margin for the main business in Q3 2025 was 20.59%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, while the overall gross margin for the first three quarters was 23.93%, up by 0.67 percentage points [3]. - The company’s operating cash flow for the first three quarters was 1.584 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.08% [1]. Store Expansion and Operations - In Q3 2025, the company opened 7 new direct-operated stores and 13 franchise stores, while closing 14 direct-operated stores, resulting in a total of 1,090 stores at the end of the period [2]. - The company’s store types include 242 comprehensive supermarkets, 400 community fresh food supermarkets, and 202 rural supermarkets [2]. Cost Management - The expense ratio for Q3 2025 was 22.01%, a decrease of 0.09 percentage points year-on-year, with a slight increase in sales and management expense ratios [4]. - The total expenses decreased, contributing to improved profit quality [4]. Future Earnings Forecast - The report projects net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 207 million yuan, 250 million yuan, and 288 million yuan, respectively, indicating year-on-year growth rates of 57.2%, 20.6%, and 15.0% [10].