晨光生物（300138）：Q3盈利亮眼，明年增长可期

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is not explicitly stated in the provided content, but the report indicates a positive outlook for future profitability and growth [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.047 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 3.41%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 304 million yuan, showing a significant increase of 385.30% [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.39 billion yuan, down 19.88% year-on-year, but the net profit attributable to the parent company was 88.86 million yuan, up 338.68% year-on-year [1]. - The report highlights a continuous increase in gross margin, with Q3 gross margin reaching 16.11%, up 10.56 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - The plant extraction business generated revenue of 766 million yuan in Q3 2025, an increase of 2.82% year-on-year, while the cottonseed business saw a revenue drop to 588 million yuan, down 34.59% year-on-year [3]. - The gross margin for the plant extraction business was 22.26%, while the cottonseed business had a gross margin of 7.80%, both showing continuous improvement [3]. - The report forecasts revenues of 6.919 billion yuan, 7.759 billion yuan, and 8.480 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits projected at 360 million yuan, 441 million yuan, and 551 million yuan for the same years [4]. Market Dynamics - The supply of key raw materials for the company's main products, such as chili red and lutein, is expected to decrease by over 10%, which may alleviate competitive pressures in the industry [3]. - The demand for natural plant extracts is anticipated to grow rapidly due to increasing consumer awareness of food safety and regulatory changes in synthetic colorants [3]. - The report suggests that the changes in supply and demand dynamics could lead to a price turning point for products, with industry profitability expected to recover moderately over the next three years [3]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue improving profitability next year, with strategic reserves of raw materials at low prices potentially leading to higher profits when prices rebound [3]. - The procurement prices of key raw materials will significantly influence the company's product prices and gross margins in the upcoming year [3].