Lier Chemical (SZ:002258) CMS·2025-10-26 13:37Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" investment rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The company's Q3 performance met expectations, with a revenue of 6.709 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.31%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 381 million yuan, up 189.07% year-on-year [1]. - The price of glyphosate is expected to bottom out and recover, as the market shows signs of demand improvement despite a generally oversupplied market [6]. - The company has successfully launched a new production capacity for refined glyphosate, which is anticipated to increase market concentration in the pesticide industry [6]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the average market price of glyphosate was 44,900 yuan/ton, down 20.0% year-on-year, while the price of 50% refined glyphosate mother liquor fell 29.2% to 64,900 yuan/ton [6]. - The company's gross profit margin for the first three quarters was 18.42%, an increase of 2.08 percentage points year-on-year, while the expense ratio decreased by 2.57 percentage points to 9.58% [6]. - The company expects net profits attributable to shareholders to be 491 million, 644 million, and 882 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.61, 0.80, and 1.10 yuan [6]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is the largest domestic producer of chlorinated pyridine herbicides and has a significant production capacity for glyphosate and refined glyphosate [6]. - The successful launch of a 20,000-ton/year enzymatic refined glyphosate project is expected to enhance the company's market position [6]. - New policies aimed at standardizing the pesticide market are expected to improve the quality and compliance of raw materials, potentially leading to a higher market concentration [6].