Sunner(SZ:002299) Guoxin Securities·2025-10-26 13:42Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2][9]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 revenue showed a significant year-on-year growth of nearly 20%, driven by strong performance in retail and export sales, despite facing pressure on profitability due to a sluggish market [3][4]. - The company achieved a total revenue of 14.706 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.86%. Q3 revenue reached 5.849 billion yuan, up 23.36% quarter-on-quarter and 18.77% year-on-year [3][12]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for the first three quarters was 1.159 billion yuan, a remarkable increase of 202.82% year-on-year, although Q3 net profit was 763 million yuan, down 67.40% quarter-on-quarter and 10.64% year-on-year [3][12]. - The company is benefiting from improved performance of its proprietary breed "901+" and a gradual increase in internal usage, alongside ongoing management optimization [3][12]. Revenue and Sales Performance - The poultry farming segment sold 435,200 tons in Q3, a year-on-year increase of 16.27%, generating revenue of 4.09 billion yuan, up 12.64% year-on-year [4]. - The processed meat products segment saw sales of 151,900 tons, a significant year-on-year increase of 52.82%, with revenue of 2.885 billion yuan, up 36.73% year-on-year [4]. - The company’s retail channel revenue grew over 30% year-on-year, and export business showed exceptional performance with revenue growth rates exceeding 100% and 90% in July and August, respectively [4]. Profitability and Cost Management - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 12.17%, an increase of 1.86 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 7.97%, up 5.30 percentage points year-on-year [5][14]. - The company maintained stable expense ratios, with total expense ratio at 6.44%, slightly down by 0.04 percentage points year-on-year [5][14]. - Operating cash flow improved significantly, with a net cash flow of 3.086 billion yuan, up 37.71% year-on-year, and cash received from sales accounted for 108.45% of revenue [5][19]. Financial Forecasts - The company’s projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 1.375 billion, 1.210 billion, and 1.475 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding earnings per share of 1.11, 1.00, and 1.19 yuan [6][21]. - The revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 20.906 billion, 23.241 billion, and 25.096 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 12.5%, 11.2%, and 8.0% respectively [7][21].