涪陵榨菜(002507):2025年三季报点评:营收延续恢复,关注新品&新渠

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [2][18]. Core Insights - The company has shown a recovery in revenue, with a focus on new products and channels. The revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 670 million yuan, up 0.3% year-on-year. In Q3 2025, revenue was 690 million yuan, reflecting a 4.5% year-on-year growth, which aligns with previous expectations [5][6]. - The company has decided to terminate the acquisition of Weizimei due to external environmental changes and failure to reach an agreement with the counterparty. This decision is not expected to adversely affect the company's existing business and strategic development [5]. - The company is expected to return to growth in 2025, driven by new products and channels. The strategy includes optimizing products, strengthening channels, and deepening reforms. The introduction of cost-effective products and the development of new channels are anticipated to enhance market performance [5][6]. Financial Summary - The company's total revenue is projected to increase from 2,387 million yuan in 2024 to 2,764 million yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of -2.6%, 3.4%, 5.4%, and 6.2% respectively [5][9]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from 799 million yuan in 2024 to 922 million yuan in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of -3.3%, 3.2%, 5.4%, and 6.0% [5][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 0.69 yuan in 2024 to 0.80 yuan in 2027, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio decreasing from 19 times in 2024 to 16 times in 2027 [5][9].