Autel(SH:688208) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-10-27 03:14Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is a global leader in digital maintenance, with its intelligent source business becoming a rapidly growing second growth curve. The AI + robotics integrated solutions are expected to create a third growth curve. Due to the company's performance exceeding expectations in the first three quarters, the earnings forecasts for 2025-2027 have been raised. The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 903 million, 1.11 billion, and 1.374 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.35, 1.66, and 2.05 yuan per share. The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 28.1, 22.9, and 18.5 times [4][5][6] Financial Performance Summary - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 3.496 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.69%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 733 million yuan, up 35.49% year-on-year. The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 718 million yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 61.81% [5][6] - The high growth in performance is primarily attributed to continuous revenue growth, effective control of period expenses, and increased foreign exchange gains. The AI + diagnostics sector has seen the company deepen its AI multimodal voice model and AI Agents applications, with new digital maintenance products featuring AI characteristics receiving high customer recognition. The TPMS product continues to maintain rapid growth [6][7] Market Demand and Competitive Position - The demand for TPMS (Tire Pressure Monitoring System) is continuously being released, with the company recently achieving dual championships in North America, which is expected to accelerate growth. The global automotive ownership exceeds 1.4 billion vehicles, with 60% of vehicles in Europe and the U.S. being over seven years old. With the implementation of mandatory TPMS installation regulations in the U.S. and EU, the replacement demand for TPMS is expected to continue to grow, with the global market size projected to exceed 5 billion USD by 2025 [7][8] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - The company's financial metrics for 2023A to 2027E are as follows: - Operating revenue (million yuan): 3,251 (2023A), 3,932 (2024A), 4,891 (2025E), 6,114 (2026E), 7,678 (2027E) - Net profit attributable to the parent company (million yuan): 179 (2023A), 641 (2024A), 903 (2025E), 1,110 (2026E), 1,374 (2027E) - EPS (diluted, yuan): 0.27 (2023A), 0.96 (2024A), 1.35 (2025E), 1.66 (2026E), 2.05 (2027E) - P/E ratios: 141.6 (2023A), 39.6 (2024A), 28.1 (2025E), 22.9 (2026E), 18.5 (2027E) [8][10]