Huafon Spandex(SZ:002064) Huaan Securities·2025-10-27 03:22Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing a bottoming out in the industry, awaiting recovery, with strong profit resilience due to low-cost expansion [1] - The third quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 18.109 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.11%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.462 billion yuan, down 27.45% year-on-year [5] - The company anticipates a gradual recovery in demand for spandex and adipic acid, with a forecasted increase in prices over the coming years [5][6] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 5.973 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.89%, and a net profit of 478 million yuan, down 3.68% year-on-year [5] - The average price of spandex in Q3 2025 was approximately 23,049 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.23% from the previous quarter [5] - The company expects to achieve net profits of 1.994 billion yuan, 3.535 billion yuan, and 3.642 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 21.83, 12.31, and 11.95 [8] Industry Outlook - The spandex market is currently facing weak supply and demand, leading to price declines, but a reduction in new capacity is expected to support a recovery in demand [5] - The company has a competitive advantage in cost structure due to its production base in Chongqing, which is expected to contribute to profit resilience [7] - No new capacity for adipic acid is expected in 2025, with a projected average price of 7,063 yuan/ton in Q3 2025, reflecting a 2.09% decrease [6]