YTL(SZ:000960) HTSC·2025-10-27 05:26Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company is expected to continue its steady growth in performance due to high tin prices and stable processing fees, leading to improved profitability [1] - The third quarter saw a revenue of 13.32 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 27.65% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 17.24%, with a net profit of 683 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 41.34% [1][2] - The company has made significant progress in technology research and intelligent transformation, enhancing its core competitiveness [3] Revenue and Profitability - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 34.42 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 17.81%, and a net profit of 1.745 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 35.99% [1] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was 9.89%, down 3.17 percentage points from the previous quarter, primarily due to pressure on smelting processing fees [2] - The company’s tin production for the first three quarters was 67,700 tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.45% [3] Market Conditions - Domestic tin supply and demand remain tight due to delays in Myanmar's resumption of production and reduced shipments from Indonesia, supporting tin prices [4] - The social inventory of refined tin in China decreased from 6,320 tons in January to 4,250 tons by the end of September, indicating a continuous destocking trend [4] Future Outlook - The company forecasts EPS of 1.37, 1.58, and 1.72 RMB for 2025-2027, with a target price of 24.49 RMB based on a PE ratio of 15.50 for 2026 [5] - The outlook for the tin industry remains positive, with emerging fields like AI expected to contribute to downstream demand [4]