奥瑞金（002701）：出海的决心

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][7]. Core Insights - The metal packaging industry is experiencing a divergence between domestic and international markets, with overseas expansion seen as a viable solution to current challenges [2][5]. - The domestic market for metal packaging has been under pressure, with weak demand from downstream sectors like beer and soft drinks, leading to difficulties in price increases [3][19]. - In contrast, the overseas market for two-piece cans shows stable supply and good profitability, with significant margin differences between export and domestic sales [3][25]. - Emerging markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, exhibit higher growth potential and can serve as key regions for the company's international expansion [4][42]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The metal packaging industry has faced challenges in the domestic market, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 35.8% for four major companies in Q2 2025, but a decline in net profit by 19.3% [3][13]. - The domestic beer production volume in H1 2025 was 19.04 million kiloliters, showing a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.2% [19]. 2. International Market Potential - The report highlights that the CAGR for global beer sales from 2024 to 2029 is expected to be 1.6%, with specific regions like Vietnam and the Middle East showing higher growth rates [4][34]. - The canning rate in emerging markets is significantly higher than in China, with Vietnam projected to have a canning rate of 78% in 2024 compared to China's 42% [4][35]. 3. Company Strategy and Expansion - The company plans to establish new production bases in Thailand and Kazakhstan, with investments of 442 million and 647 million yuan respectively, aiming for production capacities of 700 million and 900 million cans [5][63]. - The acquisition of a 65.5% stake in a metal can factory in the Middle East is expected to enhance the company's international market presence and operational efficiency [5][65]. 4. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.346 billion, 1.314 billion, and 1.489 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, reflecting a growth of 70%, -2%, and 13% respectively [5][73]. - The current market valuation corresponds to an estimated P/E ratio of approximately 12x for 2025 [5][73].