wanhua(SH:600309) HTSC·2025-10-27 07:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][4]. Core Views - The company reported stable net profit in Q3, with revenue of 53.324 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 5.52% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 11.48%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.035 billion RMB, up 3.96% year-over-year but down 0.20% quarter-over-quarter [1][2]. - Despite a downward adjustment in the 2025 profit forecast due to ongoing supply-demand pressures, the report anticipates a gradual recovery in industry conditions, maintaining profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 144.226 billion RMB, a decrease of 2.29% year-over-year, and a net profit of 9.157 billion RMB, down 17.45% year-over-year. The non-recurring net profit was 9.101 billion RMB, down 16.72% year-over-year [1][2]. - The Q3 gross margin was reported at 12.77%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from Q2 [2]. Segment Performance - The company’s sales volumes for polyurethane, petrochemicals, and new materials in the first three quarters were 4.58 million tons, 4.60 million tons, and 1.84 million tons, respectively, representing year-over-year increases of 12%, 13%, and 30% [2]. - Revenue from these segments was 55.1 billion RMB, 59.3 billion RMB, and 23.8 billion RMB, with year-over-year changes of +2%, -4%, and +19% respectively [2]. Market Outlook - The report indicates that the polyurethane segment is experiencing price pressures due to weak downstream demand, while the petrochemical segment is also under pressure from supply increases and weak demand [3]. - The company is actively advancing several projects, including TDI/MDI projects and ethylene feedstock modifications, which are expected to contribute to performance improvements [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The 2025 net profit forecast has been adjusted down to 12.29 billion RMB, a decrease of 11% from the previous estimate, while the forecasts for 2026 and 2027 remain at 17.78 billion RMB and 20.81 billion RMB, respectively [4][20]. - The target price for the company is set at 79.52 RMB, based on a 14x PE ratio for 2026 [4].