TONGWEI CO.,LTD(SH:600438) HTSC·2025-10-27 07:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 31.66 [6]. Core Views - The company reported a significant reduction in losses in Q3 2025, with a net profit of -3.1 billion RMB, improving from losses of 5.3 billion RMB year-on-year and 20.5 billion RMB quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to rising silicon material prices and a decrease in electricity prices during the wet season [1][2]. - The company's operating cash flow turned positive at 47.8 billion RMB in Q3 2025, indicating a substantial improvement in operational quality [1]. - The company has sufficient cash reserves, with total cash and financial assets amounting to 34.77 billion RMB as of the end of Q3 2025, reflecting a 4.6% increase [1]. Summary by Sections Silicon Material Business - Q3 2025 saw a significant recovery in profitability for the silicon material business, with the average price of N-type dense silicon reaching 49,700 RMB per ton by the end of September 2025, a 56% increase from June 2025 [2]. - The decrease in electricity prices during the wet season in regions like Yunnan and Sichuan, combined with production process optimizations, is expected to lead to a continued decline in production costs [2]. - The report emphasizes that silicon materials are a key focus of the photovoltaic "anti-involution" strategy, which aims to eliminate outdated production capacity through energy consumption control and capacity storage [2]. Battery Component Business - The battery component business faced operational pressure in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year decline in new installations of photovoltaic systems by 52% in Q3 2025, leading to a potential decrease in the company's battery and component shipments [3]. - Due to declining returns from downstream power plants, there is limited room for price increases in battery components, which may continue to pressure profitability [3]. - The report remains optimistic about long-term demand driven by quality requirements for battery components and projects like large-scale wind and solar bases, photovoltaic desertification, and green electricity connections [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company’s projected net profits for 2025-2027 are -6.18 billion RMB, 3.57 billion RMB, and 5.13 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding EPS of -1.37, 0.79, and 1.14 RMB [4]. - The report highlights the company's strong position in both silicon materials and batteries, benefiting from ongoing supply-side reforms and the anti-involution trend [4]. - The target price is set at 31.66 RMB, based on a PE ratio of 40.08x for 2026, reflecting a positive outlook compared to the previous target of 25.39 RMB [4].