国泰集团（603977）：民爆利润保持增长，其他业务及补助形成拖累

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - The company's profits from civil explosives continue to grow, while other businesses and subsidies are a drag on overall performance [5] - The company reported a revenue of 1.601 billion yuan for Q3 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 6.01%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 190 million yuan, down 13.06% year-on-year [7] - The decline in revenue and profit is primarily due to the performance of non-explosive businesses and reduced government subsidies [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue forecast for 2023 is 2.541 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 18.05%, followed by a decline in 2024 and 2025 [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is projected at 306 million yuan, with a significant year-on-year increase of 112.65%, but a forecasted decline in 2024 [6] - The company’s gross margin for the first three quarters is stable at 34.91%, with a slight increase of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The company expects net profits of 255 million yuan, 337 million yuan, and 504 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 30, 23, and 15 [7][8]