南华期货苹果产业周报：霜降后苹果如何了？-20251027

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core contradictions affecting apple prices are the low high - quality fruit rate due to continuous rain delaying the harvest time and reducing the sales period, and the uncertainty of apple storage volume. The storage volume in Gansu is expected to be lower than last year, while Shaanxi's storage volume may be higher but with lower effective inventory, and Shandong will also have lower effective inventory [2]. - In the short - term trading logic, the market bets on the quality and low high - quality fruit rate of late Fuji apples, causing the futures price to rise. The recent increase of 11, 12, and 01 contracts is weaker than that of the far - month contracts because the logic that the later the contract, the fewer deliverable fruits, prevails [3]. - In the long - term trading logic, the market expects the price to decline after a high opening price. However, if the low high - quality fruit rate leads to low storage data and a shortage of high - quality fruits in the later sales period, the 05 contract may have no goods for delivery [4]. - The upward momentum of apple prices has increased recently, but the profitable seats have reduced their long positions, indicating a lack of confidence in further price increases [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The main reason for the recent rise in apple futures prices is the low high - quality fruit rate. Continuous rain has postponed the harvest time in the east and west regions, and the approaching frost has compressed the sales period [2]. - Affected by the quality decline, the storage volume in Gansu is expected to be lower than last year. Shaanxi's storage volume may be higher, but the effective inventory will be lower, and Shandong will also have lower effective inventory [2]. 3.1.2 Speculative Strategy Recommendations - Market Positioning: The upward momentum of apple prices has increased, but the profitable seats have reduced their long positions, with a net long position of only 1632 lots [7]. - Basis, Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations: There is no basis strategy. The recommended spread strategy is to short the 01 - 05 spread [8][9]. 3.1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - Price Range Forecast: The monthly price range of apples is predicted to be 8400 - 9000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 10.5% and a historical percentile of 26.6% (3 - year) [10]. - Hedging Strategy: For inventory management, when worried about low apple purchase prices due to a bumper harvest, enterprises can short apple futures (AP2601, sell, 25%, entry range 8900 - 9000) and sell call options (AP2601C, sell, 25%, entry range 200 - 300) to lock in profits and reduce costs. For procurement management, when worried about high purchase prices due to low inventory and a shortage of high - quality fruits, enterprises can buy apple futures (AP2601, buy, 75%, entry range 8600 - 8700) and sell put options (AP2511P8600, buy, 75%, entry range 150 - 180) to lock in purchase costs and reduce costs [10]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - In Gansu, there is no more apple supply for purchase. In Shandong, the supply has increased recently, about one week later than usual. The prices of different grades of apples are as follows: 80 above general goods are 2.4 - 2.8 yuan/jin, first - and second - grade semi - products are 2.8 - 3.4 yuan/jin, and first - and second - grade products are 3.2 - 3.6 yuan/jin. Shaanxi has a serious water - rot problem, and merchants have suspended purchases. In Liaoning, high - quality apples are attractive, with prices exceeding 4 yuan/jin [11]. - The opening prices of western late Fuji apples are 0.5 - 1 yuan/jin higher than last year [11]. - The number of apple trucks arriving at the three major markets in Guangdong has fluctuated significantly. After the Mid - Autumn Festival, the number has decreased. The sales of new late Fuji high - quality apples are okay, but there is pressure on daily digestion, and there is some inventory backlog in transit warehouses [13]. - The cold storage of new apples in Gansu is likely to be lower than last year. In Shandong, the effective inventory will be lower due to quality problems. In Shaanxi, the storage volume may be higher, but the effective inventory will be lower [13]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Information No information provided in the report. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Fund Interpretation - Last week, the apple futures price rose, but the main contract fluctuated greatly, and the price increase was much smaller than that of the 05 contract. The total apple position is similar to that of last year and the year before. The profitable seats reduced their positions last week. Technically, the main contract of apple futures maintains an oscillating upward structure, and the short - term trend is still strong [19]. 3.3.2 Basis and Spread Structure - Apple Basis Structure: The apple basis structure is very complex. The quality of apples varies each year, and the grading conditions in Shandong and the northwest are different. The futures delivery rules are constantly changing, and the number of deliverable fruits this year is unknown due to the low overall quality [21]. - Apple Spread Structure: The apple spread structure has typical large - volume fluctuations when the near - month contract approaches the delivery month, which is related to the number of deliverable fruits. According to seasonal rules, the 10 - contract trades the opening price, and the short - term supply is much lower than that of the 11 - and 12 - contracts. The 01 - contract is around the Spring Festival, with a relatively large delivery volume and tight delivery time. However, due to the low overall quality of apples this year, the pre - festival contract may be weak, and the post - festival high - quality apples may be in short supply and strengthen [21][22]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - Apple profits are mainly divided into planting profits and storage profits. Currently, the market focuses on storage profits, which are closely related to the opening price. The storage profit for the 25/26 season is undetermined. Due to the large number of low - quality apples and a shortage of high - quality apples this year, storage is facing a huge test [24]. 3.5 Supply and Inventory Deduction - According to the previous bagging data, the 25/26 apple season is expected to have a slight increase in production, with a 2.35% increase to 3736.64 million tons. Shaanxi is expected to increase production by 7.57% to 878.84 million tons, Shandong to decrease by 9.89% to 782.37 million tons, Gansu to increase by 2.18% to 379.15 million tons, Henan to increase by 21.09% to 274.28 million tons, and Shanxi to increase by 28.39% to 352.19 million tons. However, considering only the bagging number cannot accurately infer the production, and not considering the quality cannot determine the price. Due to dry - hot wind in April 2025 and excessive rainfall since September, the final apple production may decrease compared to last year, and the quality may decline significantly [26][27].