天目湖（603136）：毛利率稳定，销售费用投放增加致净利率下降

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company is a leading one-stop tourism enterprise in China, with state-owned capital expected to empower its development. The forecast for total operating revenue from 2025 to 2027 is 5.25 billion, 5.73 billion, and 6.27 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -2%, 9%, and 9.5% respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 1.05 billion, 1.18 billion, and 1.34 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.5%, 12.1%, and 13.3% respectively. The current stock price corresponds to valuations of 30x, 26x, and 23x for 2025-2027 [7] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 140 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.23%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 29 million yuan, down 13.19% year-on-year. For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 386 million yuan, a decrease of 4.65% year-on-year, and a net profit of 83 million yuan, down 2.54% year-on-year [7] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 54.02%, a slight decrease of 0.04 percentage points year-on-year, indicating stability. However, the increase in sales expenses significantly impacted the net profit margin, which was 20.45%, down 2.82 percentage points year-on-year. For the first three quarters of 2025, the gross margin was 53.72%, an increase of 0.88 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 21.58%, up 0.47 percentage points year-on-year [7] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company's revenue forecast for 2023A, 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E is 630 million, 536 million, 525 million, 573 million, and 627 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of 70.9%, -14.9%, -2.0%, 9.0%, and 9.5% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 147 million, 105 million, 105 million, 118 million, and 134 million yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 623.9%, -28.8%, 0.5%, 12.1%, and 13.3% [6] Valuation Metrics - The earnings per share (EPS) for the forecasted years are 0.54, 0.39, 0.39, 0.44, and 0.49 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 34.0, 29.0, 29.5, 26.3, and 23.2 [6] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 11.0%, 7.8%, 7.6%, 8.3%, and 9.0% for the years 2023A to 2027E [6]