Holly Futures(SZ:001236) Hong Ye Qi Huo·2025-10-27 08:55Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The fundamentals of the steel industry have improved, but downstream demand remains weak. The price of coking coal and coke has increased this week, strengthening cost - side support and limiting the downside space for steel prices. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Finished Products - Supply: The weekly output of rebar from major domestic steel mills was 2.0707 million tons (+59,100 tons), and the weekly output of hot - rolled coils was 3.2246 million tons (+6,200 tons) [5]. - Demand: Recent high - frequency data shows that the apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils has increased. Last week, the apparent demand for rebar was 2.2601 million tons (+62,600 tons), and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils was 3.2673 million tons (+111,800 tons) [5]. - Inventory: Rebar total inventory was 6.2211 million tons (-189,400 tons), social inventory was 4.3748 million tons (-189,300 tons), and steel mill inventory was 1.8463 million tons (-1,000 tons). Hot - rolled total inventory was 4.1492 million tons (-42,700 tons), social inventory was 3.3757 million tons (-37,700 tons), and steel mill inventory was 773,500 tons (-5,000 tons) [5]. - Basis: Futures fluctuated, and the basis was volatile [5]. - Summary: The profitability rate of steel mills was 47.62%, a 7.79% week - on - week decrease; pig iron output was 2.399 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,500 tons. The blast furnace operating rate was 84.71%, a 0.44% week - on - week increase, and the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 89.94%, a 0.39% week - on - week decrease; the electric furnace operating rate was 67.86%, a 0.99% week - on - week decrease, and the electric furnace capacity utilization rate was 52.3%, a 0.9% week - on - week decrease [5]. 3.2. Macro Aspect - Local time from October 25th to 26th, China and the United States held economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, and the two sides reached a preliminary consensus. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology solicited public opinions on the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Steel Industry (Draft for Comment)". The draft states that in key areas, the total steel production capacity shall not be increased, and the transfer of steel production capacity from non - key areas to key areas and between different key areas is prohibited [6]. 3.3. Raw Materials - Prices: This week, the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,490 yuan/ton (a 40 - yuan increase), the price of main coking coal in Lvliang was 1,575 yuan/ton (no change), and the price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 778 yuan/ton (no change) [17]. - Pig Iron and Electric Furnace: Pig iron output continued to decline, and the electric furnace operating rate decreased. As of October 24, 2025, the blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.44% week - on - week, the electric furnace operating rate decreased by 0.99% week - on - week, and pig iron output was 2.399 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,500 tons [19][21]. 3.4. Steel Mill Profitability As of October 24th, the profitability rate of steel mills was 47.62%, a 7.79% week - on - week decrease. The increase in cost - side prices squeezed steel profits [29]. 3.5. Tangshan Blast Furnace Operating Rate As of October 24th, the Tangshan blast furnace operating rate was 93.44%, a 1.76% week - on - week increase [33]. 3.6. Steel Production As of October 24th, rebar production increased by 59,100 tons week - on - week. In terms of process, long - process production increased by 44,100 tons week - on - week, and short - process production increased by 15,000 tons week - on - week. Hot - rolled coil production increased by 6,200 tons week - on - week and remained at a high level [38]. 3.7. Demand - Rebar consumption increased by 62,600 tons week - on - week, and hot - rolled coil demand increased by 111,800 tons week - on - week [44]. - As of October 24th, the weekly average building materials trading volume was 100,500 tons, and the trading volume remained at a low level. The weekly average hot - rolled coil trading volume was 31,900 tons. Downstream cold - rolled production was 860,700 tons, a 13,400 - ton week - on - week decrease with an increased decline [47][52]. 3.8. Steel Inventory - As of October 24th, Tangshan billet inventory was 540,100 tons, a 96,000 - ton week - on - week increase. The inventory of major steel products was 10.9942 million tons, a 261,000 - ton week - on - week decrease [55]. - Rebar total inventory decreased by 189,400 tons week - on - week, social inventory decreased by 189,300 tons week - on - week, and steel mill inventory decreased by 1,000 tons week - on - week [57]. - Hot - rolled total inventory decreased by 42,700 tons week - on - week, social inventory decreased by 37,700 tons week - on - week, and steel mill inventory decreased by 5,000 tons week - on - week [62]. 3.9. Steel Exports In August, steel exports were 9.41 million tons, a 330,000 - ton month - on - month decrease; from January to August, cumulative steel exports were 77.49 million tons, a 10% year - on - year increase [65]. 3.10. Automobile Production and Sales - In September, automobile production was 3.276 million vehicles, a 466,000 - vehicle month - on - month increase; automobile sales increased by 369,400 tons month - on - month. - In September, new energy vehicle production was 1.617 million vehicles, a 226,000 - vehicle month - on - month increase; new energy vehicle sales were 1.604 million tons, a 209,000 - ton month - on - month increase [69]. 3.11. Real Estate Data From January to September, real estate investment decreased by 13.9% year - on - year, the newly started housing area decreased by 18.9% year - on - year, the completed housing area decreased by 15.3% year - on - year, the commercial housing sales area decreased by 5.5% year - on - year, the commercial housing sales volume decreased by 7.9% year - on - year, and the funds in place decreased by 8.4% year - on - year [71][72].