KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Dongxing Securities·2025-10-27 09:36Investment Rating - The industry investment rating for the food and beverage sector is "Positive" [5] Core Insights - The recent 113th National Sugar and Wine Commodity Fair indicated that while overall sales in the liquor industry have declined, the worst demand phase has passed. Companies are launching low-alcohol products to attract younger consumers, with new products like the 22-degree "Jinshi Yuan" being showcased [1][2][11] - The overall atmosphere at the autumn fair was subdued, with fewer exhibitors and visitors compared to previous years. Sales of liquor during the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays dropped approximately 25%, primarily due to a significant decline in group purchases and government-related sales. However, it is believed that liquor demand has reached its lowest point, although destocking will take time [1][11] - The upcoming online Double Eleven shopping festival may temporarily affect liquor prices, but short-term price fluctuations are not expected to hinder the industry's recovery. Leading companies, particularly Kweichow Moutai, are showing signs of bottoming out and recovery [2][12] Market Performance - During the fair, the weekly price changes in various food and beverage sub-sectors were as follows: Yellow Wine +6.55%, Other Liquors +2.07%, Beer +0.76%, Baijiu +0.43%, Seasoning and Fermented Products -0.26%, Other Foods -0.66%, Dairy Products -1.42%, Soft Drinks -3.26%, Meat Products -3.44% [2][13] - The top five companies in terms of price increase during the fair were: Kuaijishan +11.08%, Guyue Longshan +5.07%, Shede Liquor +4.92%, Luzhou Laojiao +4.76%, and Bairun Co. +4.33%. The bottom five were: Weilang Co. -2.00%, Budweiser Asia -3.10%, ST Lanhua -3.11%, Huangtai Liquor -4.67%, and China Resources Beer -6.07% [3][18] Industry Tracking - Key upcoming events in the industry include shareholder meetings and performance briefings for various companies, such as Delisi and Jinhuijiu, scheduled for late October [6] - The food and beverage industry comprises 126 listed companies, with a total market capitalization of approximately 46,813.98 billion and an average P/E ratio of 21.65 [6]