Yunnan Aluminium (SZ:000807) Huaan Securities·2025-10-27 11:04Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company reported a steady performance with a year-on-year profit recovery due to declining costs. For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved an operating income of 44.072 billion yuan, up 12.47% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.398 billion yuan, up 15.14% year-on-year. In Q3 2025, the operating income was 14.993 billion yuan, up 3.13% year-on-year, and the net profit was 1.630 billion yuan, up 25.31% year-on-year [4] - The increase in profit is attributed to rising aluminum prices and falling alumina prices. The average domestic spot price of electrolytic aluminum in Q3 2025 was 20,740 yuan/ton, up 5.96% year-on-year and 2.64% quarter-on-quarter. The alumina price decreased significantly, which further enhanced profit margins [4] - The company has a high dividend payout, distributing 3.20 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 1.11 billion yuan, which accounts for approximately 40.1% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 [5] - The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 6.047 billion yuan, 7.393 billion yuan, and 8.226 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13.30, 10.88, and 9.78 [6] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024A, the operating income is projected at 54.450 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 27.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 4.412 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 11.5% [8] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 13.2% in 2024A to 20.2% in 2027E, indicating a positive trend in profitability [8] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 15.6% in 2024A, increasing to 17.8% in 2027E, reflecting improved efficiency in generating profits from equity [8]