Tesla(US:TSLA) GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2025-10-27 11:46Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tesla [7][11]. Core Insights - Tesla's automotive sales are strong, with a notable increase in energy storage business momentum. The acceleration of autonomous driving technology iterations, particularly with FSD and AI chips, is highlighted. The company is also advancing its Robotaxi and Optimus initiatives [3][11]. - The Q3 revenue for Tesla reached $28.095 billion, a year-over-year increase of 11.6%. The automotive revenue was $21.205 billion, up 5.9%, with vehicle sales reaching 497,100 units, a 7% increase year-over-year, marking a quarterly record [11]. - The report projects slight adjustments to Tesla's FY2025E-FY2027E revenue to $94.894 billion, $113.798 billion, and $141.742 billion respectively, with corresponding Non-GAAP net profits of $6.208 billion, $10.566 billion, and $13.513 billion [11]. Financial Summary - Total revenue (in million USD): - 2023: 96,773 - 2024: 97,690 - 2025E: 94,894 - 2026E: 113,798 - 2027E: 141,742 - Gross margin and operating profit margin are projected to be 17.5% and 5.1% for 2025E respectively [5][12]. - The adjusted PE ratio for 2025E is estimated at 250.6 [5]. Business Segmentation and Valuation - The report utilizes a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method, assigning a target price of $518 based on various business segments: - Automotive hardware business: PE of 20x - Energy storage business: PE of 20x - FSD service business: PS of 30x - Robotaxi operations: PS of 30x - Optimus robotics: PS of 40x [11][14].