长安汽车（000625）：Q3毛利率环比向上，新车与出海并驱

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 15.45 [1][5][11] Core Views - The company reported Q3 revenue of RMB 42.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 0.8 billion, showing a year-on-year decrease of 15% [1][5] - The company’s new energy vehicle penetration rate increased to approximately 48% in Q3 2025, with sales of new energy passenger vehicles reaching 250,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 83% [2][4] - The company is expected to launch multiple new models in Q4 2025, focusing on the RMB 100,000 to 200,000 new energy market, which is anticipated to enhance its product matrix [3][4] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company’s gross margin was 15.7%, a slight increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous quarter. The sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios were 7.1%, 2.5%, 4.2%, and -0.3% respectively [2][5] - The company’s revenue forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to RMB 180.3 billion, RMB 202.5 billion, and RMB 226.4 billion, with net profit forecasts of RMB 5.6 billion, RMB 7.9 billion, and RMB 9.5 billion respectively [5][9] Market Expansion - The company’s overseas sales reached 465,000 units in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 11%. The European market has shown significant progress, with the launch of the Deep Blue S07 in the UK [4][5] - The company has established over 14,000 global channel outlets, enhancing its logistics and user service systems through international cooperation [4][5] Valuation - The valuation for the traditional business is set at RMB 924 billion with a PE ratio of 12 times for 2026. The "Deep Blue + Avita" business is valued at RMB 608 billion with a PS ratio of 1.0 times for 2026 [5][11]