顾家家居（603816）：2025Q3业绩逆势增长，转型变革蓄势能

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 15.012 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.77%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.539 billion yuan, up 13.24% year-on-year [2] - The company's retail transformation is showing positive results, with significant growth in both domestic and foreign trade revenues. The implementation of a digital supply chain and automated warehousing has improved operational efficiency [3] - The gross margin and net margin for Q3 2025 were 31.42% and 10.45%, respectively, reflecting an increase of 1.62 percentage points and 0.79 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The company is positioned as a leader in the soft furniture industry, focusing on user-centric, digital, and whole-home solutions, and is expected to continue its growth trajectory post-transformation [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 5.211 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.50%, and a net profit of 518 million yuan, up 11.99% year-on-year [2] - The operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2025 was 1.855 billion yuan, showing an improvement compared to the previous year [2] Revenue Analysis - The company has initiated a product operation transformation, enhancing the efficiency of product management and retail operations through digital tools and data-driven strategies [3] - The retail transformation has led to an 18-fold increase in sales of smart products compared to H2 2024, and over 50% growth in functional product categories [3] Profitability Analysis - The company maintained a strong control over expenses, with a total expense ratio of 17.51% in Q3 2025, which is a decrease of 0.40 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The net profit margin increased to 10.45%, supported by improved gross margins and effective cost management [4] Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 20.291 billion yuan, 22.563 billion yuan, and 24.707 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits of 1.858 billion yuan, 1.991 billion yuan, and 2.167 billion yuan for the same years [5][7]